The whole world is waiting!
At 4 a.m. on Thursday, will the Fed cut interest rates?
By how many basis points?
How much will it affect the A-share market?
In fact, I think everyone doesn't need to stay up late, because the market has already anticipated and reacted, the answer is not important.
Of course, I just flipped through and saw people still discussing whether the Fed will really cut interest rates?
If you're doing investment and gambling, then you definitely haven't even started!
Some people are also discussing whether it's 25 or 50 basis points, which is also unnecessary worrying.
What should stock market investors care about more?
You should be more concerned about whether the global stock market will fall or quickly fall and then rebound after the interest rate cut is implemented, and whether A-shares will follow.
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This is what we need to care about, expectation management, the Fed is first-class in this regard, there is no way to let you be surprised, what surprises you is the performance of the market.
Then, in the evening, we mainly talk about two topics, the first, the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut on A-shares, the second, let's talk about Wednesday's only 480 billion, is there still hope for A-shares?
Where is the hope?
We talked a lot before, because the interest rate cut in September is in line with market expectations, and 25 basis points is also a very high probability event!
If it really cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, then the global market will collapse, because the market will worry that the Fed is accelerating the expectation of recession, so, at 4 a.m., you can watch, but you don't need to wait, it basically meets expectations.
So, does the Fed's interest rate cut mean that A-shares will go bull?
I said in a video a few months ago that the U.S. stock market is going bull, because they are following the logic of inflation, and now the U.S. stock market is also falsifying the trade recession.
What is A-shares doing?
Obviously, it is slowing down demand again and again, so we A-shares want to rise, it should be after the Fed's interest rate cut, we introduce new stimulus policies, so A-shares can rise, the Fed's interest rate cut without action, play, has no meaning, and instead becomes an excuse for the main force to escape in the short term.
Emphasize again: the Fed's interest rate cut is just the first step, our introduction of policies is the most critical!
This is why you see the main force pulling up real estate in the afternoon on Wednesday, because everyone has already anticipated the policy, that's all!
Regarding the current A-share market volume, 480 billion is really too little, because quantitative must go through this process, although the current transaction volume has decreased, but the game I personally feel, is a bit better than before, A-shares are weak now, but it is beneficial in the long term, then the short-term operation, it is also very simple here, because Wednesday is a single needle bottoming out, so Thursday, especially the whole A index can not quickly make up for the fall, as long as it does not make up for the fall, as long as it does not kill more, then you can look at the stage.
Why?
Because the market has expectations!
On the contrary, if Thursday morning opens up and makes up for the fall, then it may still be a continuation of the decline, although Wednesday broke through 2,700, I still controlled my hand, mainly considering that there was no foreign capital on Wednesday, and on Thursday I looked at the performance of some foreign capital, as long as Thursday's foreign capital does not make up for the knife, does not kill more, then I think the stage should be able to stabilize a bit, and even there will be a rebound, and then you can choose a wide base to start.
In summary, the Fed's interest rate cut is just the first step, our introduction of policies, stimulating our weak demand, this is the fundamental factor for A-shares to change the plate, the transaction volume of 480 billion, because after squeezing out the quantitative water, we must pay that price, in the long term it is definitely meaningful.
The short-term operation strategy is that when foreign capital comes back on Thursday, it cannot appear to kill more, if it appears to kill more, it is still necessary to be cautious, on the contrary, if it does not appear to kill more, then the short-term can be optimistic and do more, the market chooses what direction, we look at what direction.