Admittedly, the A-share market was indeed weak before the holiday, with market funds panicking regardless of positive or negative news.

However, I believe this is not the norm.

The A-share market cannot become an inefficient market.

During the holiday, the Hong Kong market, as shown in the figure below, has been continuously strong and shows signs of accelerating upward.

If the central bank is the mother, then the Federal Reserve is the father of the global stock market.

Next week, it will unleash a major move to cut interest rates, which will greatly reduce the pressure on the A-share market and the economy.

Previously, we proposed that there might be a seesaw effect in the A-share market around the Mid-Autumn Festival, so let's wait and see.

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First, let's take a look at the important news during the holiday period.

Remember to like and then read slowly.

News 1: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promotes domestic DUV lithography machines, and the market believes that it can mass-produce chips with a process of about 28nm.

The news is obviously good for technology stocks.

Although it is only mass-producing 28 nanometers, the more advanced EUV lithography machine has not yet been seen, but it is of milestone significance for our domestic replacement to make up the most critical link!

It is beneficial for the overall valuation of A-share technology stocks, but it needs to be pointed out that the lithography machine industry chain is biased towards thematic investment and subject matter, and speculation should look at the moon rather than the stars.

News 2: During the holiday period, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, with the Hong Kong stock market rising by 1.67%, the A50 futures rising by 0.8%, precious metals soaring with gold rising by more than 3%, and industrial metals such as copper also rising.

The news is slightly favorable for A-shares.

The rise in the Hong Kong stock market is due to the weakening of the US dollar index, coupled with the outflow of yen, flowing back to the Hong Kong stock market, and the Hong Kong stock market has fresh water.

What A-shares lack is new funds.

I think as long as a big Yang line comes out, incremental funds will also come, but it is definitely not good to continue the vicious cycle.

News 3: Everyone is looking forward to it, this Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision and economic forecast summary!

The news is a major good news.

In itself, from the perspective of interest rate cuts, it actually doesn't have that much impact on a share, because the core reason for the weakness of the A-share market is the economic expectation issue.

Moreover, interest rate cuts have been going on for several years, and they don't have that much impact on the liquidity improvement of A-shares, and foreign capital may not come back in large amounts.

However, it needs to be pointed out that if fiscal and central bank actions are taken when the United States cuts interest rates, the impact on A-shares will be significant.

Overall, everything is so familiar, taking advantage of our holiday rest, the outside market is continuing to play music and continue to be happy, A-shares will not raise valuations because of the rise in the outside market, so the rise in the outside stock market is limited, and it needs to be observed whether there will be major moves in the policy this week to bring A-shares to turn the world around.

Regarding the overall market and hot spots, the following is the daily K-line of the overall market, as shown in the figure below, from the horizontal range of 2800~2900 to accelerate the bottoming out, and generally this kind of bottom needs to be confirmed by a large volume of Yang lines and trend K-lines, which is not easy, but considering that the economic data in August was lower than expected, the market is transforming from a policy bottom to a market bottom, and there may be a phase opportunity for a rapid break below 2700 in the short term.

In terms of direction, the market is weak and mainly focuses on concepts, and in recent thematic investments, mergers and reorganizations, central enterprise mergers, and the expectation of rebound from difficulties such as securities, photovoltaics, and lithium battery reorganizations are expected to continue to be active after the festival.

And the demand-confirmed computing industry chain, input-type inflation of non-ferrous metals, etc., may also be active.